Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

When Do Qualitative Risk Disclosures Backfire? The Effects of a Mismatch in Hedge Disclosure Formats on Investors' Judgments

Disclosure standards mandate the quantitative disclosure of hedging‐instrument‐related risks but not the disclosure of hedged‐item‐related risks. We examine how a match (mismatch) in formats, caused by making quantitative (qualitative) hedged item disclosures alongside quantitative hedging instrument disclosures, affects investors' integration of information from these two related disclosures. Our first experiment varies the hedged item disclosure format (quantitative or qualitative) and the portion of risk hedged (small or large). We find that when disclosure formats are mismatched, the less comparable nature of the two disclosures caused investors to neglect the offsetting relationship when assessing net risks. As a result, risk and investment judgments were influenced by the more prominent quantitative hedging instrument disclosures. Our second experiment finds that the use of a qualitative debiaser that clarifies the relationship between the two disclosures led to the integration of information and mitigated this effect.     

进口油气管道技术谈判要点透析——基于《中俄东线管道供气购销协议》前期技术谈判经验

2014年5月21日,中国石油天然气集团公司和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司签署了《中俄东线管道供气购销协议》,标志着跨越近20年的中俄天然气谈判尘埃落定.分析该协议的前期技术谈判要点,包括进口油气管道技术谈判应充分发动集团公司整体力量,打造强有力的谈判阵容,建立高效的沟通机制和快速的响应机制,选择雄辩的首席谈判代表、得力的发起人和具备实战经验的翻译员.谈判准备期间应充分借鉴类似管道谈判经验,并充分调研国外基本情况;谈判策略要抓大放小,既要放眼国际环境又要立足技术细节,必要时可将多项技术条款“捆绑”;谈判技巧需灵活应对,既坚持原则又不乏折中变通,争取双赢.总结中俄东线天然气管道前期技术谈判经验,为今后中俄西线及其他进口油气管道前期谈判提供参考和借鉴.     

基于投影寻踪方法的粮食主产区农民用水合作组织绩效研究——基于湖北、湖南、黑龙江3省的调查

[目的]农民用水合作组织是我国灌溉管理制度改革的产物,农民用水合作组织的建立改进了农村水利管理的方式,提高了灌溉管理过程中水资源的利用率。[方法]通过构建粮食主产区农民用水合作组织绩效评价指标体系,建立基于实数编码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪分类模型,对湖北、湖南、黑龙江等3省61家农民用水合作组织的绩效进行了实证分析。[结果]粮食主产区农民用水合作组织绩效水平总体较好,在所调查的61家农民用水合作组织中,27.1%的农民用水合作组织绩效为优秀,28.8%绩效良好,13.6%绩效一般,30.5%绩效较差。[结论]总体上来看,湖南、湖北等2省农民用水合作组织的绩效高于黑龙江。是否有产权、农户参与率、是否民主决策、培训次数、农户满意度、单位面积灌水量和水费收取率等指标对农民用水合作组织绩效影响最大。因此,政府适当放权,选取恰当的扶持方式,提升农户的认识,推广好的农民用水合作组织发展模式是提高农民用水合作组织绩效的有效途径。     

The Roles of Innovators and Labor in a Schumpeterian Factor Endowments Based Model of Intra‐industry Trade

This paper builds a model of Schumpeterian innovation and trade that emphasizes endowments of innovators and labor as a key factor in determining the pattern of trade. The model suggests a strong complementarity between intra‐industry and inter‐industry trade. The pattern of inter‐industry vs intra‐industry trade is analyzed using the Grubel–Lloyd index. The theoretical model predicts that the prominence of intra‐industry trade is a nonlinear function of the ratio of the proportion of world knowledge domestically generated to the domestic share of the world labor supply. Strong empirical evidence for this key result is presented and implications are discussed.     

浅议高职院校体育教学中存在的问题及对策

高职院校人才培养应符合社会需要。随着素质教育概念的提出和实施,高职院校体育教学加快了改革的步伐,"健康第一"的教育理念逐渐深入人心,这对高职体育教学提出了更高的要求。目前,高职院校体育教学中仍存在很多问题,直接影响着教学质量。只有充分认识问题,分析问题,才能更有效地解决问题。     

高校二级学院党代表驻班联系制度的探索和实践——以重庆文理学院为例

党代表驻班联系制度是重庆文理学院旅游学院创新高校二级学院党建工作、服务学生成长成才的重要举措。该制度紧紧＂把握一个定位,落实两项举措,坚持三个结合,实施四位一体,健全五个机制＂,体现了以学生为本和为民务实清廉的要求,收到了比较令人满意的效果。     

The nexus between sustainable practices in hotels and future Gen Y hospitality students’ career path decisions

This study explored tertiary hospitality students’ attitudes and overall perceptions about green and sustainable practices; and how these may impact their future career paths in the hotel industry. A thematic analysis with data from 12 semi-structured interviews with students in a hotel management school in Australia was used to identify patterns and interpretive themes. Results revealed positive attitudes among Generation Y hospitality students towards working in a green and sustainable hotel environment. Implications highlight the need for sustainability education in the curriculum of tertiary education providers and strong emphasis on sustainability practices in employee training programs. The results also suggest possible impacts of sustainability practices in recruiting and hiring in the hospitality industry and how this may affect future hospitality employees and leaders.